Highlights
- More specifically targeting products with risky contamination is efficient
- Concentration- and virulence-based standards capture more risk in less products
- Genomic clustering more efficiently than serotype identifies risky contamination
Abstract
Prevalence-based performance standards have guided Salmonella control in poultry industry, but concentration- and virulence-based final product standards could target the most risky contamination more specifically. We adapted our previous risk assessment for chicken parts to comminuted turkey to assess the risk in products implicated by different final product standards, incorporating assumptions from FSIS 2024 risk assessments. We simulated the attributable fraction of illnesses from products contaminated over three level thresholds (0.0031 CFU/g, 1 CFU/g, and 10 CFU/g) and/or containing a serotype in three lists (“Top 3 most prevalent higher-virulence serotypes”, “All higher-virulence serotypes”, and “Higher-virulence proportion of each serotype”). Results showed that 87% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.56% of products with Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g. Under more specific criteria of level “AND” serotype, 60% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.14% of products contaminated with Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g and one of the three most prevalent higher-virulence serotypes. Further, applying genomic-based clustering information, 75% of illnesses were attributed to slightly more products (0.19%) containing Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g and higher-virulence proportion of each serotype. Under the less specific standard, however, 99% of illnesses were attributed to the 5.7% of products containing Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g “OR” one of the three most prevalent higher-virulence serotypes. Our study demonstrated that most salmonellosis risk is concentrated in comminuted turkey products with high levels of higher-virulence contaminations. Importantly, more specifically targeting those products could efficiently reduce public health risk while minimizing products implicated.
DOI